Bayesian inference and model selection for stochastic epidemics

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Lampros Bouranis participated in the Action “Visits of faculty members to secondary education schools” of the program “Outreach and information program for the school community”, organised by the Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB). Students of the senior high school “Nea Pedia” visited the Computational and Bayesian Statistics Laboratory (Troias Building) at the premises of AUEB. Together with Prof Ioannis Ntzoufras, and PhD candidate Ilias Leriou we discussed our experiences as statisticians, the benefits of studying Science. Lampros also presented how the Marie Curie action’s work relates to our everyday lives.




This summer Lampros Bouranis presented his work on “Bayesian analysis of diffusion driven multi-type epidemic models with application to COVID-19” (joint with Nikos Demiris, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos and Ioannis Ntzoufras) at the following conferences/meetings:

Contact Details

Email: bernadette.aueb AT

Twitter profile: BernadetteMsca

About the project

The objective of this Marie Sklodowska-Curie Action (MSCA) is to develop novel statistical methodology for the modeling of infectious diseases like COVID-19. The success of the interdisciplinary project will lead to a number of multidisciplinary innovations in epidemiology, Public Health policy and statistics, which will contribute to the timely identification of optimal disease control strategies.

The BERNADETTE outputs will be relevant to healthcare and the EU Epidemic intelligence, by:

  1. Offering novel statistical methodology for the analysis of COVID-19 outbreak data and the description of a number of aspects of the underlying infection pathway of the disease
  2. Quantifying the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions based on an epidemic model
  3. Allowing for the forecasting of future case number scenarios
  4. Contributing in the assessment of the socio-economic impact of different response strategies for human epidemics in Europe in order to improve European preparedness planning and support decision-making in the framework of national epidemic preparedness plans. The BERNADETTE outputs will contribute to the enhancement of EU scientific excellence.

Inspired by the findings of this MSCA and striving to maximise the impact of the research outcomes, we are planning to organise public engagement activities and to publish papers in highly ranked peer-review journals that will benefit epidemiologists, Public Health policy makers and statisticians.


Project title: “BERNADETTE”

Period: 24 months in total, starting in May 2021

Fellow: Lampros Bouranis, PhD

Primary Coordinator: Professor Nikolaos Demiris, Athens University of Economics and Business

Secondary Coordinator: Professor Ioannis Ntzoufras, Athens University of Economics and Business

Beneficiary: Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business

Partner Organisations:

University of Nottingham - Supervisor: Professor Theodore Kypraios

University of Padova - Supervisor: Professor Laura Ventura

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Supervisor: Professor David Rossell


EU emblem

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 101027218.

For more information, please visit the European Commission’s Community Research and Development Information Service (CORDIS) webpage.

Useful sources

Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions - Individual Fellowship programme

Who was Marie Sklodowska Curie? - Biographical